BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Washington has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Washington. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Washington is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.33–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Washington is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.33–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.331.9
20261.10.331.9
20271.10.331.9
20281.10.331.9
20291.10.331.9

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Kestrel in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Othello919911981
Nighthawk920241992
Harwood919971993
Scootney Reservoir820242009
Pomona719991998
Twisp420221969
Curlew420171992
Quincy320241981
Wilbur320231983
South Elma320231984
Mesa320081994
Reardan220241968
Wapato220221971
Asotin220241981
Tonasket220171982
Prescott220151981
Keystone220211994
Pomeroy220241992
Odessa220241993
Deer Park220101995
Yakima220241993
Walla Walla219931993
Lake Chelan220241988
Montesand220211996
Columbia Nwr220221992

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.