BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Washington has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970
82Routes In State
56Years

Notable American Kestrel Trends in Washington

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Washington. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Washington is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.33–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.33–1.995% range
±63%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.331.9
20261.10.331.9
20271.10.331.9
20281.10.331.9
20291.10.331.9

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Kestrel in Washington.
Othello919911981
Nighthawk920241992
Harwood919971993
Scootney Reservoir820242009
Pomona719991998
Twisp420221969
Curlew420171992
Quincy320241981
Wilbur320231983
South Elma320231984
Mesa320081994
Reardan220241968
Wapato220221971
Asotin220241981
Tonasket220171982
Prescott220151981
Keystone220211994
Pomeroy220241992
Odessa220241993
Deer Park220101995
Yakima220241993
Walla Walla219931993
Lake Chelan220241988
Montesand220211996
Columbia Nwr220221992

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.