BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Washington

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Washington has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+5%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Washington. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.34–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.34–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.341.9
20271.10.341.9
20281.10.341.9
20291.10.341.9
20301.10.341.9

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Kestrel in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scootney Reservoir1220252009
Othello919911981
Harwood919971993
Pomona719991998
Moses Coulee620241993
Yakima620251993
Twisp420221969
Asotin420251981
Nighthawk420251992
Curlew420171992
Malden420251998
Quincy320241981
Wilbur320251983
South Elma320231984
Ellensburg320251981
Pe Ell320251993
Mesa320081994
Selah320252000
Port Angeles220251972
Reardan220241968
Wapato220221971
Tonasket220171982
Prescott220151981
Keystone220251994
Pomeroy220241992

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.