BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Indiana has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Indiana. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Indiana is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.52–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Indiana is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.52–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.512.0
20261.30.522.0
20271.30.522.0
20281.30.522.0
20291.30.522.0

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording American Kestrel in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sexton720241983
Evansville720221966
Columbia Cty520041981
Galveston520241982
Brookville520241966
Witts Station520242000
W Lafayette420241982
Swayzee420231986
Celestine420241979
Newberry420241999
Cross Plains420242002
Knox320191984
Packertown320041973
Monticello320241985
Thorntown320241982
Maplewood320212000
Jamestown320241987
Indian Spgs320241982
Cuba320212019
Decatur320191999
Georgia320241999
Kewanna220211983
Middlebury220241989
Fowler220241967
Muncie219971984

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.