BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Indiana

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Indiana has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Indiana. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Indiana is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.56–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Indiana is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.56–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.552.0
20271.30.552.0
20281.30.552.0
20291.30.562.1
20301.30.562.1

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording American Kestrel in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sexton720241983
Evansville720221966
Brookville620251966
Columbia Cty520041981
Jamestown520251987
Indian Spgs520251982
W Lafayette420241982
Swayzee420231986
Brazil420251966
Azalia420251986
Clear Spring420251981
Scottsburg420251982
New Brunswick420252024
Cross Plains420242002
Packertown320041973
Maplewood320212000
New Phila320251982
Decatur320191999
Witts Station320252000
Georgia320251999
Packertown 2320252006
Anderson320252001
Kewanna220211983
Middlebury220251989
Fowler220251967

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.