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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Utah has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-60%Since 1970
106Routes In State
56Years

Notable American Kestrel Trends in Utah

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Utah: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Utah is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029
0.41Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.495% range
±26.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.500.001.5
20260.480.001.5
20270.460.001.5
20280.430.001.5
20290.410.001.4

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording American Kestrel in Utah.
Altonah620151968
Hardware Ranch620181995
Aneth520241993
Lake Powell520001993
Saleratus Cr520161995
Hyrum419791975
Lynn420231982
Fairfield420241988
Bonanza420151992
Hanna420241998
Grizzly Rdge320241993
Castleton319851969
Ant Flat-Ogden Can320231994
Fish Lake Nf320241992
Moquith Mtn320051987
Bear River320231994
Indian Peak320181992
Vernal320171999
Newcastle320221998
Lost Cr. Res320181995
Wellington 2320112003
Timpie Spg220021978
Uintah Nf219941987
Glen Canyon220021992
Beryl219961988

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.