BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Utah has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Utah: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Utah is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Utah is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.001.5
20260.480.001.5
20270.460.001.5
20280.430.001.5
20290.410.001.4

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording American Kestrel in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Altonah620151968
Hardware Ranch620181995
Aneth520241993
Lake Powell520001993
Saleratus Cr520161995
Hyrum419791975
Lynn420231982
Fairfield420241988
Bonanza420151992
Hanna420241998
Grizzly Rdge320241993
Castleton319851969
Ant Flat-Ogden Can320231994
Fish Lake Nf320241992
Moquith Mtn320051987
Bear River320231994
Indian Peak320181992
Vernal320171999
Newcastle320221998
Lost Cr. Res320181995
Wellington 2320112003
Timpie Spg220021978
Uintah Nf219941987
Glen Canyon220021992
Beryl219961988

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.