BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Missouri has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+118%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Missouri: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.80 (95% range 0.47–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.80 (95% range 0.47–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.441.1
20260.780.451.1
20270.790.461.1
20280.800.471.1
20290.800.471.1

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording American Kestrel in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Madison820241974
Cp Girardeau720241969
Frankford520222001
Sticklervill420241984
Barnard420221999
Deventer320231967
Rensselaer320241972
Kingsville320181992
Cameron320231986
Weston320222015
Blodgett320242013
Cascade220211976
Akers220241969
Clementine219821975
Handley220211967
Washington219691967
Syracuse220241976
Ohio220221979
Hamilton219851977
Frazier220241969
Kahoka219981993
Bolckow219921967
Whitewater220221997
Bland220121997
Kearney220231994

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.