BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in North Carolina has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has collapsed in North Carolina: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±134.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.06
20260.000.000.06
20270.000.000.06
20280.000.000.06
20290.000.000.06

American Kestrel Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording American Kestrel in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cullowhee319771977
Myrtle Grove119781967
Wards Corner119671967
Raeford120132013
Dismal Swamp120102010
Jordan120031966
Rose119861986
Saxapahaw119821982
Climax120052003
Mooresville119661966
Brevard119991999
Craven Gap119751971
Madison119691969
Copeland120211975
Call120161969
Sturgills120162005
Siloam120162016
Ostwalt120162016
Lake Surf120232010
Cypress Lakes120092009
Cypress Cr120032003
Mattamuskeet120192019
Hulls Xroads120061997
Flay119951990
Marshall120241995

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.