BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in New Mexico has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-48%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New Mexico is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.28–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New Mexico is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.28–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.900.331.5
20260.890.321.5
20270.880.301.5
20280.870.291.4
20290.850.281.4

American Kestrel Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording American Kestrel in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita1020191992
Mesilla720001992
Maxwell720241996
Horse Mtn520231968
Farmington419871975
Fence Lake420241975
Valencia419971968
Horse Spgs420241975
Quemado419971992
Aztec419891988
La Plata 2420162014
San Antonio319771974
Datil319941993
Sanostee320242022
Ojo Sarco220091968
Deming219691968
Counselor220241992
Mcgaffey220181995
Mt. Taylor220121993
Vallecitos220051997
Reserve220181999
Red Rock220161992
Pinon220241997
Hobbs220241994
Columbus220241992

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.