BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in South Carolina has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-17%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in South Carolina is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in South Carolina is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.17
20260.060.000.17
20270.060.000.17
20280.060.000.17
20290.060.000.16

American Kestrel Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording American Kestrel in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jamestown320091974
New Holland219671967
Salem Xrd219981998
Hardeeville120112011
Sandhills120241996
Adams Run120172005
Coward119761976
Pendleton119681968
Blacksburg120102010
Joanna120062006
Anderson119931980
Nixonville119941994
Chesnee119971997
Campobello120242022
Whitmire120212021

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.