Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
American Kestrel Population Trend in Mississippi
American Kestrel in Mississippi has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
-79%Since 1969
19Routes In State
35Years
Notable American Kestrel Trends in Mississippi
long arc declinecomputed index
American Kestrel has collapsed in Mississippi: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
American Kestrel Population Forecast in Mississippi
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1795% range
±117.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2026 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2027 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
American Kestrel Survey Routes in Mississippi
| Diberville | 2 | 1987 | 1979 |
| Dundee | 2 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Commerce | 1 | 1990 | 1973 |
| Benton | 1 | 1978 | 1978 |
| Okatibbee L. | 1 | 1996 | 1995 |
| Lucien | 1 | 1967 | 1967 |
| Olive Branch | 1 | 1987 | 1970 |
| Cockrum | 1 | 1986 | 1967 |
| Duck Hill | 1 | 1969 | 1969 |
| Columbia | 1 | 1999 | 1976 |
| Corinth | 1 | 2024 | 2024 |
| Tupelo | 1 | 1990 | 1972 |
| Macon | 1 | 1967 | 1967 |
| Aberdeen | 1 | 2010 | 1990 |
| Neely | 1 | 2011 | 2011 |
| Benndale | 1 | 1974 | 1974 |
| Monticello | 1 | 2017 | 2017 |
| Latimer | 1 | 1990 | 1989 |
| Necaise | 1 | 1992 | 1982 |
American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States
alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.