BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Minnesota has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has collapsed in Minnesota: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Minnesota is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Minnesota is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.001.1
20260.370.001.0
20270.340.001.00
20280.310.000.97
20290.290.000.94

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American Kestrel in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Evergreen520241967
Millville420171968
Little Fork320241969
Lake Bronson320111978
Chokio North320241995
Bagley320061995
Big Stone320121995
Lakeville220151968
Minnetonka220241969
Redwood Fall220161979
Maynard220151969
St Stephen220051967
Glyndon220181979
Island Lake219881969
Sherry Lake220211969
Bemidji219801980
Le Center220231993
New London220181994
Nebish220231983
Caledonia 2220232015
Money Creek120141969
Chatfield119971967
Hartland120161967
Huntley120161967
Chandler120151970

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.