BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Minnesota has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969
89Routes In State
57Years

Notable American Kestrel Trends in Minnesota

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has collapsed in Minnesota: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Minnesota is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029
0.29Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9495% range
±83%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.400.001.1
20260.370.001.0
20270.340.001.00
20280.310.000.97
20290.290.000.94

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American Kestrel in Minnesota.
Evergreen520241967
Millville420171968
Little Fork320241969
Lake Bronson320111978
Chokio North320241995
Bagley320061995
Big Stone320121995
Lakeville220151968
Minnetonka220241969
Redwood Fall220161979
Maynard220151969
St Stephen220051967
Glyndon220181979
Island Lake219881969
Sherry Lake220211969
Bemidji219801980
Le Center220231993
New London220181994
Nebish220231983
Caledonia 2220232015
Money Creek120141969
Chatfield119971967
Hartland120161967
Huntley120161967
Chandler120151970

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.