BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Virginia has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Virginia. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Virginia is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Virginia is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.34
20260.130.000.34
20270.120.000.34
20280.120.000.33
20290.120.000.33

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording American Kestrel in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Church Road419781978
Surry419981979
Edinburg320231982
Hebron320011982
Taylorstown 2320182014
Star Tannery220231978
W Augusta220181975
Churchville220231970
Nat Tunnel220241988
Covesville219811977
Shipman219871973
Hall219901967
Cape Charles219971997
Iron Mountain 3220142014
Stickleyvill219811975
Saltville220191997
Wylliesburg219911976
Taylorstown120101970
Stanley120181966
Tryme120191977
Jerome120231975
Dryden119931991
Port Royal119931980
Partlow119781978
David120011969

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.