BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Georgia

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Georgia has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Georgia. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Georgia is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Georgia is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.020.000.08
20290.020.000.08
20300.020.000.08

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording American Kestrel in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stockton219821982
Nashville219781978
Fairplay219911991
Siloam219801971
Baxter220121980
Holly Sprs219801980
Deepstep220051978
Okefenokee119741974
Fitzgerald120131966
Lyons119701970
Wrightsville119991982
Lincolnton119751975
Maxeys120031967
Athens120252010
Cotton119781976
Oakman120191992
Cartersville120221966
Coffee Co120251998
Baldwin119901990
Grovetown119811981
Lacross120252025
Tazewell120171998
Shannon119861977
Mountain Cty119921978
Rutledge119871987

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.