BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Louisiana has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-18%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.12
20260.020.000.12
20270.020.000.12
20280.020.000.12
20290.020.000.12

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording American Kestrel in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goodwill620162015
Derry319741973
Gonzales219981998
Transylvania220011998
Pearl River219891989
Natchez220221994
Roseland119991990
Bickham119921992
Mamou119721972
Hackberry119791979
De Ridder120151968
Shaw119961986
Fishville119971972
Fort Polk119751973
Chatham119731967
Longstreet119801979
Glencoe120032003
Lake Cove120142013
Greensburg120001989
Trout119991995
Marion119881988
Brousville120242024
Frogmore120242016
Flat Creek120072007
Derry 2120212021

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.