BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in North Dakota has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969
48Routes In State
57Years

Notable American Kestrel Trends in North Dakota

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in North Dakota is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029
0.34Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7795% range
±95.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.350.000.79
20260.350.000.78
20270.340.000.78
20280.340.000.78
20290.340.000.77

American Kestrel Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Kestrel in North Dakota.
Bowesmont319961968
Roosevelt Pk320171982
Lake George220171968
Emerado220241976
Niles219981989
Dunn Center219951978
Cedar Creek220102004
Glen Ullin220131989
Wild Rose219941994
Montpelier219961996
Forman120231975
Walcott120211967
Sydney119801971
Edgeley120231990
Danzig119921992
Kempton120121968
Cooperstown120231982
Wimbledon120071997
Horsehead Lk120081980
Buchanan120151998
Nash120061980
Lakota120081978
Webster120001989
Rolla120011984
Regan120132013

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.