BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in North Dakota has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in North Dakota is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in North Dakota is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.000.79
20270.350.000.78
20280.340.000.78
20290.340.000.78
20300.340.000.77

American Kestrel Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Kestrel in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forman420251975
Bowesmont319961968
Denbigh320251968
Roosevelt Pk320171982
Lake George220171968
Emerado220241976
Niles219981989
Dunn Center219951978
Cedar Creek220102004
Glen Ullin220131989
Wild Rose219941994
Turtle Mtns220251983
Montpelier219961996
Walcott120211967
Sydney119801971
Edgeley120231990
Danzig119921992
Kempton120121968
Cooperstown120231982
Wimbledon120071997
Horsehead Lk120081980
Buchanan120151998
Nash120061980
Lakota120081978
Webster120001989

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.