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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Pennsylvania has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Pennsylvania: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.28–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.28–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.620.280.96
20270.620.280.95
20280.620.280.95
20290.620.280.95
20300.610.280.95

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording American Kestrel in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millville820241969
Harmonsburg520241967
Ryde520051971
Drehersville519991967
Drehersville 2520252000
Sigel420161989
Quakertown419881972
Espyville320171976
N Pine Grove320242000
Rosecrans320241969
Rush320251970
Poyntelle320251969
Williamsburg320241991
St College320241972
Carsonville320231973
Scheafferstn320011968
Collegeville320051971
Sugar Grove320251981
Akron319971989
Brunnerville 2320212012
Ferris Crnrs220231969
Ridgway220132002
Roulette220101976
Arnot220251970
Little Marsh220241982

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.