BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Pennsylvania has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Pennsylvania: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.28–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.28–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.290.96
20260.620.290.96
20270.620.280.96
20280.620.280.96
20290.620.280.96

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording American Kestrel in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millville820241969
Ryde520051971
Drehersville519991967
Sugar Grove520241981
Harmonsburg420231967
Sigel420161989
Bow Bridge420221969
Quakertown419881972
Espyville320171976
N Pine Grove320242000
Rosecrans320241969
Rush320241970
Williamsburg320241991
St College320241972
Carsonville320231973
Scheafferstn320011968
Collegeville320051971
Mount Joy320241978
Akron319971989
Brunnerville 2320212012
Brick Tavern320241990
Drehersville 2320242000
Ferris Crnrs220231969
Ridgway220132002
Roulette220101976

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.