BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in South Dakota has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in South Dakota is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in South Dakota is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.001.2
20260.560.001.2
20270.560.001.2
20280.560.001.2
20290.550.001.2

American Kestrel Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording American Kestrel in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Geddes920081979
Marcus420031999
Lightning Cr420221993
Volga320101967
Harding320171974
Pleasant Val320241992
Hazelrodt320241993
French Creek320051995
Roswell220141967
Wind Cave Np220231999
Promise220101971
Custer220161990
Eagle Butte220132010
Ardmore220191977
White River220131994
Rochford220091996
Railroad Butte220171995
Turton220171989
Lennox120141967
Tripp120181967
Howard120101973
White Lake119811970
Chamberlain119781972
Winner120231988
Rosebud119671967

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.