BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has risen sharply in South Dakota: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in South Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in South Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.001.2
20270.580.001.2
20280.570.001.2
20290.570.001.2
20300.570.001.2

American Kestrel Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording American Kestrel in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Geddes920081979
Harding520251974
Marcus420031999
Winner320251988
Volga320101967
Maurine320251970
Pleasant Val320241992
Lightning Cr320251993
French Creek320051995
Roswell220141967
Wind Cave Np220251999
Promise220101971
Custer220161990
Reva220251985
Eagle Butte220132010
Ardmore220191977
White River220131994
Railroad Butte220171995
Turton220171989
Lennox120141967
Tripp120181967
Howard120101973
White Lake119811970
Chamberlain119781972
Rosebud119671967

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.