Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
American Kestrel Population Trend in Alaska
American Kestrel in Alaska has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1988.
-49%Since 1988
24Routes In State
30Years
Notable American Kestrel Trends in Alaska
No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Alaska. See the full index history below.
American Kestrel Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.03Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.0795% range
±127.2%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| 2026 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| 2027 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| 2028 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| 2029 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
American Kestrel Survey Routes in Alaska
| Eagle | 2 | 1997 | 1992 |
| Circle | 2 | 2012 | 1988 |
| Birch Lake | 2 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Nicholai Sl | 2 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Sheep Mtn | 2 | 2006 | 1999 |
| Dietrich Cmp | 2 | 2024 | 1995 |
| Chatanika R | 1 | 2011 | 2011 |
| Livengood | 1 | 2016 | 2016 |
| Chiniak | 1 | 1996 | 1996 |
| Nabesna Road | 1 | 2009 | 1998 |
| Tower Bluffs | 1 | 2016 | 2016 |
| Northway | 1 | 2005 | 2001 |
| Monahan | 1 | 1987 | 1987 |
| Chena Hot Spring 2 | 1 | 1999 | 1999 |
| Toklat | 1 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Kanuti Canyn | 1 | 2006 | 2006 |
| Manley Ht Sp | 1 | 2012 | 2007 |
| Mt. Fairplay | 1 | 2015 | 2015 |
| L Salcha | 1 | 1989 | 1989 |
| Chena Hot Sp | 1 | 1986 | 1986 |
| Murphy Dome | 1 | 2010 | 1997 |
| Kachemak | 1 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Savage | 1 | 2012 | 2002 |
| Hatcher Pass | 1 | 1996 | 1996 |
American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.