BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Alaska

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-56%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Alaska. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.030.000.06
20290.030.000.06
20300.030.000.06

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording American Kestrel in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle219971992
Birch Lake220002000
Nicholai Sl219941994
Sheep Mtn220061999
Dietrich Cmp220241995
Circle120251988
Chatanika R120112011
Livengood120162016
Chiniak119961996
Nabesna Road120091998
Tower Bluffs120162016
Northway120052001
Monahan119871987
Chena Hot Spring 2119991999
Toklat119911991
Kanuti Canyn120062006
Manley Ht Sp120122007
Mt. Fairplay120152015
L Salcha119891989
Chena Hot Sp119861986
Murphy Dome120101997
Kachemak119941994
Savage120122002
Hatcher Pass119961996

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.