BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in New Hampshire has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in New Hampshire: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.40
20260.110.000.39
20270.110.000.39
20280.100.000.38
20290.100.000.37

American Kestrel Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording American Kestrel in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dixville Notch 2620242018
Dixvil Notch320171968
Peterborough219721967
Mt Chocorua219681968
Walpole220211966
Milan220231969
Brentwood119841968
Fitzwilliam120221967
Dover120241966
Hopkinton120221972
Epsom119861966
Concord120031968
Strafford119891969
Canterbury120121968
Gilmantn I W119991970
Wilmot119851978
Marlow120171973
Lempster120141966
Crawford Not119681968
Jefferson Hl120071971
Franconia120191974
Stratford120061966
Clarksville120071971
Glen119991976
East Kingston120012001

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.