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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Kansas

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Kansas is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Kansas is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.000.94
20270.440.000.93
20280.430.000.92
20290.420.000.91
20300.400.000.89

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording American Kestrel in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hanover620251970
Rock Creek 2520222022
Seneca420221975
Galesburg320151972
Lapland320161974
St John320131967
Olathe320181967
Hays320081967
Hollenberg320231974
Logan320191969
Missler320081978
Ruleton320112005
Beloit 2320182005
Melrose220231975
Dalton220231968
Ellinor220031967
Chapman219801967
Grantville220171967
Covert220251967
Gove220151972
Bucyrus220252022
Plymell220252000
Ulysses220242016
Le Loup220162000
Beloit220032003

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.