BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Delaware

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Delaware has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has collapsed in Delaware: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Delaware is projected to fall about 11% by 2021 — from 0.17 in 2016 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Delaware is projected to fall about 11% by 2021 — from 0.17 in 2016 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.180.000.72
20180.170.000.71
20190.170.000.70
20200.160.000.70
20210.150.000.69

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording American Kestrel in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frederica220001973
Blackbird220101994
Mt Pleasant120071966
Wilmington120111966
Harrington120161968
Dover119771968
Frankford120121968
Holleyville120041966
Bethany Bch119771976
Milton119931967
Georgetown119941994

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.