BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Vermont has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Vermont: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Vermont is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Vermont is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.62
20260.110.000.61
20270.100.000.59
20280.090.000.58
20290.080.000.57

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording American Kestrel in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waterville419801969
Gaysville320071981
Hardwick220101966
North Pownal120111968
Stratton120221966
Landgrove119951966
S Reading120021966
Post Mills120241977
Shaftsbury120061967
S Wallingfrd120171967
W Rutland120241966
St Johnsbury120211970
East Haven120241972
Northfld Fls120162000
Middlesex120191968
East Calais120011973
Newbury120011987
Greensboro120151967
Fletcher120231969
Hinesburg119941971
Colchester120231986
Grand Isle120091972
Newbury 2120162016
Stowe119951990
Bristol120181995

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.