BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Florida has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968
57Routes In State
58Years

Notable American Kestrel Trends in Florida

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Florida. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Florida is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.05–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029
0.30Projected 2029 index
0.05–0.5495% range
±39.7%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.290.050.54
20260.290.050.54
20270.290.050.54
20280.300.050.54
20290.300.050.54

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording American Kestrel in Florida.
Pleasant Gr820081993
Polk City520242008
San Antonio420241969
Lake Buffum320241988
Ocala320241987
St Augustine319781972
Flemington319991991
Romeo220241966
Citrus220222012
Myakka Head219731972
Mabel220101966
Ft Lonesome220241967
Salvista219791967
Eglin A.F.B.220081995
Dowling Park220091987
Hildreth220091989
Nobleton220241987
Bristol220092008
Mabel 2220192013
Ft Waltn Bch119921979
Mossy Head119971969
Broad Branch119711971
Miccosukee119701970
Croom120241995
Covington119981969

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.