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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Florida has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Florida. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Florida is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.05–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Florida is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.05–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.050.54
20260.290.050.54
20270.290.050.54
20280.300.050.54
20290.300.050.54

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording American Kestrel in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Gr820081993
Polk City520242008
San Antonio420241969
Lake Buffum320241988
Ocala320241987
St Augustine319781972
Flemington319991991
Romeo220241966
Citrus220222012
Myakka Head219731972
Mabel220101966
Ft Lonesome220241967
Salvista219791967
Eglin A.F.B.220081995
Dowling Park220091987
Hildreth220091989
Nobleton220241987
Bristol220092008
Mabel 2220192013
Ft Waltn Bch119921979
Mossy Head119971969
Broad Branch119711971
Miccosukee119701970
Croom120241995
Covington119981969

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.