BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Idaho has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Idaho. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Idaho is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Idaho is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.4
20261.00.002.3
20271.00.002.3
20280.990.002.3
20290.960.002.2

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording American Kestrel in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pocatello1120191979
Cedar Hill920241989
Ririe720231971
Bates620231988
Coolin420241987
Joel420241989
Picabo420211990
Dougal Res420241988
Lolo Pass320001994
Cascade319841968
Henry319831973
Crane Creek320191988
Mud Lake320231988
Cabarton320131985
Mora320242018
Pasadena Val320151987
Blackft Res220171984
Naples220241972
Golden220031993
Baker220241975
Leadore220241975
Dubois220241972
Squirrel220241971
Blacks Creek220171968
Craters220181979

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.