BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Colorado has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Colorado. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.92 (95% range 0.36–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.92Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.960.401.5
20260.950.391.5
20270.940.381.5
20280.930.371.5
20290.920.361.5

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording American Kestrel in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doyle Bridge1719971992
Cortez920081988
Steamboat L.720241996
Yampa620231969
Kiowa520171968
Paonia520241992
Cortez 2520172009
Rush420191983
Falfa420241971
Waverly420141988
Colona 2420212015
Lay420241996
Aspen320241979
Colona320141972
Lamar320061977
Gilpin320241970
Wilson Creek320241990
Lost Lake320241993
Adams Co.320221991
Trinchera320221990
Kiowa 2320242022
San Luis320241993
Haswell320241999
Groundhog Rs320231993
Fort Morgan320191996

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.