BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Colorado

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Colorado has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
144Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Colorado. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.90 (95% range 0.35–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.90 (95% range 0.35–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.391.5
20270.930.381.5
20280.920.371.5
20290.910.361.5
20300.900.351.5

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording American Kestrel in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doyle Bridge1719971992
Cortez920081988
Yampa620231969
Kiowa520171968
Falfa520251971
Gilpin520251970
Paonia520241992
Edler520252025
Cortez 2520172009
Rush420191983
Wilson Creek420251990
Waverly420141988
Colona 2420212015
Steamboat L.420251996
Walsenburg420251994
Yellowjacket Pass420252001
Colona320141972
Lamar320061977
Lost Lake320241993
Adams Co.320221991
Trinchera320221990
Haswell320241999
Groundhog Rs320231993
Baxter Pass320242001
Gardner320251998

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.