BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Montana

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Montana has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-21%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Montana. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Montana is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.02–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Montana is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.02–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.091.9
20270.980.071.9
20280.970.061.9
20290.950.041.9
20300.940.021.9

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording American Kestrel in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clyde Park1020252018
Chuffey Spring920242016
Cabin Creek820252018
Brandenberg720251968
Shawmut620251979
Pablo Res.620251995
Brusett520241982
Flatwillow 2520232011
Glasgow420251968
Polson420251972
Miles City420252015
Brunzell Slough420252016
Greenough420031996
Circle320221977
Boulder320251969
Forsyth320231980
Reed Point320251978
Laurel320251968
Chinook320252015
Wheat Basin320252018
Custer 2320252025
Kalispell220241968
Harlem220181968
Oswego219891978
Arlee220181969

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.