BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Montana has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-30%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Montana. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Montana is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.01–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Montana is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.01–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.990.081.9
20260.980.061.9
20270.960.041.9
20280.950.031.9
20290.930.011.8

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording American Kestrel in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clyde Park1320242018
Chuffey Spring920242016
Polson820241972
Two Dot720241976
Laurel620221968
Powderville620241968
Brusett520241982
Flatwillow 2520232011
Miles City520242015
Leroy420241970
Shawmut420241979
Red Rock420241973
Philipsburg420242015
Greenough420031996
Glasgow320241968
Circle320221977
Forsyth320231980
Reed Point320241978
Brandenberg320191968
Lambert320242021
Maynard Coulee320232018
Kalispell220241968
Harlem220181968
Oswego219891978
Arlee220181969

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.