BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Connecticut has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-65%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Connecticut: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Connecticut is projected to fall about 100% by 2023 — from 0.07 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±174.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Connecticut is projected to fall about 100% by 2023 — from 0.07 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.000.000.26
20200.000.000.26
20210.000.000.26
20220.000.000.26
20230.000.000.26

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording American Kestrel in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Southington519791979
Warren319901972
Mystic119991973
Buckingham119711971
Woodstock119881982
Westbrook119861975
Willimantic119971970
No Woodbury119951972
Sherman120121973
Danbury119841981
Long Hill119811974
Mid Haddam120091973
New Hartford119791975
Granby120182013

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.