BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Tennessee has surged: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+293%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Tennessee: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Tennessee is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.34–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Tennessee is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.34–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.321.2
20260.770.331.2
20270.770.331.2
20280.780.341.2
20290.780.341.2

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording American Kestrel in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen920241969
Peytonsville720241967
Campbellsville520191968
Mansfield420241969
Humboldt420241968
Moscow319971974
Whiteville220131976
Collinwood220241973
Petersburg220191968
Tullahoma220021982
Union Hill220241968
Pawpaw 2220232017
Signal Mtn119931993
Tiptonville120141977
Pawpaw120111974
Brownsville120081977
Tibbs120241966
Big Sandy119861971
Sweetlips120121975
Trenton120101968
Pond Creek120231968
Indian Mound119961971
Wrigley120161970
Lewis Forest120111977
Belotes Bend120151966

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.