BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in New York has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968
110Routes In State
58Years

Notable American Kestrel Trends in New York

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in New York. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New York is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2029
0.27Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7295% range
±41.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.330.000.79
20260.310.000.77
20270.300.000.76
20280.280.000.74
20290.270.000.72

American Kestrel Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Kestrel in New York.
Huntington719811978
Warwick619741968
Austerlitz320241966
Mt Morris320241976
Gainesville320221967
Clinton320131969
Salem320231967
Parishville320241968
Philadelphia320241980
Manorville219951966
Catskills219711971
Cobleskill220221966
Whitney Pt220221966
Coventryvile220221967
Mcdonough220171970
E Newark220241969
Vestal Ctr220191966
Orleans220241967
Nashville220181967
E Youngstown220191966
Churchville220241970
Waddington219961982
Willsboro220241968
Westhampton120031968
Jones Beach119691966

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.