BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in New York has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in New York. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New York is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New York is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.79
20260.310.000.77
20270.300.000.76
20280.280.000.74
20290.270.000.72

American Kestrel Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Kestrel in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Huntington719811978
Warwick619741968
Austerlitz320241966
Mt Morris320241976
Gainesville320221967
Clinton320131969
Salem320231967
Parishville320241968
Philadelphia320241980
Manorville219951966
Catskills219711971
Cobleskill220221966
Whitney Pt220221966
Coventryvile220221967
Mcdonough220171970
E Newark220241969
Vestal Ctr220191966
Orleans220241967
Nashville220181967
E Youngstown220191966
Churchville220241970
Waddington219961982
Willsboro220241968
Westhampton120031968
Jones Beach119691966

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.