BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Illinois has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Illinois. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Illinois is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.73–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.73–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Illinois is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.73–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.682.3
20261.50.692.3
20271.50.702.3
20281.50.722.3
20291.50.732.3

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording American Kestrel in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandlervill820241971
Melrose819991978
Monticello620241979
Flora620241976
Gulfport420241981
Deer Creek420231966
Concord420241967
Seneca420241993
Duncan Mills420241994
Le Roy420231994
Athens420231996
Atkinson320241966
Geneseo320181969
Terre Haute320241966
Monica320191976
Minonk320171988
Olney320241966
Robinson320231976
Brownville320241994
Clayton320242001
Allerton Park320242001
Itasca220191973
Compton220181988
Dailey220221967
Milford220211967

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.