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Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Illinois

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Illinois has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Illinois. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Illinois is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.72–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Illinois is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.72–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.682.3
20271.50.692.3
20281.50.702.3
20291.50.712.3
20301.50.722.3

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording American Kestrel in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Melrose819991978
Flora620241976
Holcomb420251973
Chandlervill420251971
Deer Creek420231966
Jamestown420251967
Caledonia420251993
Seneca420241993
Le Roy420231994
Allerton Park420252001
Athens420231996
Atkinson320241966
Stillwell320251980
Cameron320251966
Monica320191976
Mackinaw320251966
Minonk320171988
Pontiac320251983
Athensville320251983
Concord320251967
Olney320241966
Robinson320231976
Darmstadt320251996
Dudleyville320252001
Itasca220191973

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.