BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in New Jersey has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has collapsed in New Jersey: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±440.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±440.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±440.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.68
20250.000.000.68
20260.000.000.68
20270.000.000.68
20280.000.000.68

American Kestrel Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording American Kestrel in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deepwater519771969
Masonville319701967
Kemah Lake319931973
Clarksville219911969
Croton220011971
Robbinsville219771969
Hope219891971
Mt Misery219891976
Croton 2220172015
Woodbury Hgt119971986
Greenwich120061968
Six Points119971982
Toms River119691969
Albion119921972
Ancora119721972
Bennett Mill119971972
Sandbrook120181969
Holmansville119891969
New Bedford119981973
Midvale119771973
Bloomsbury120101970
High Point119781977
Dover119781978
Pottersville120231983
Del Haven119911991

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.