BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Massachusetts has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968
27Routes In State
45Years

Notable American Kestrel Trends in Massachusetts

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has collapsed in Massachusetts: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3595% range
±240.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.35
20260.000.000.35
20270.000.000.35
20280.000.000.35
20290.000.000.35

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording American Kestrel in Massachusetts.
Cheshire319891969
Chilmark219751971
Newburyport219871968
E Pepperell219921966
N Orange219881970
Pittsfield220161975
Holden220221989
E Dennis119831967
Marion120231966
Wellfleet119971970
Prattville119791966
Brockton119911976
Maynard119891972
Littleton120141969
N Oxford119791968
Mansfield119941970
Princeton119721972
Belchertown120241981
Warren120021977
S Barre119861969
Cummington119951972
Chesterfield120241967
Sheffield120051971
Ware River119951995
Cape Cod Ns119951995

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.