BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Kentucky has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Kentucky is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.68–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Kentucky is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.68–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20291.70.682.8

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording American Kestrel in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Morganfield2220242022
Mckee820241969
Merrimac820241967
Kings Mtn620241967
Levee519821969
Eastview520241967
Shelbyville519781966
Glencoe520221967
Canton420241968
Keysburg420241968
Iron Bridge419981967
Plum420241966
Cedar Grove320241966
Riverqueen320242010
Dixon320242005
Pleasurevill320241980
Million319861966
Demunbruns320211966
Gatewood320191966
Boxville319831966
Dixie320181967
East Union320221970
Bays Fork320191999
Levee 2320192008
Lovelacevile220221972

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.