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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Kentucky has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Kentucky is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.68–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Kentucky is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.68–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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American Kestrel Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording American Kestrel in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merrimac820241967
Mckee720251969
East Union620251970
Levee519821969
Eastview520251967
Shelbyville519781966
Glencoe520221967
Iron Bridge419981967
Keysburg320251968
Cedar Grove320241966
Dixon320242005
Million319861966
Demunbruns320211966
Gatewood320191966
Boxville319831966
Dixie320181967
Bays Fork320191999
Levee 2320192008
Shiloh220251968
Hegira220241992
Sunnybrook220221968
Pleasurevill220251980
Goshen219991966
Buena Vista220151966
Gesling219721972

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.