BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in West Virginia has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in West Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in West Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.44
20260.190.000.43
20270.190.000.43
20280.190.000.43
20290.180.000.42

American Kestrel Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording American Kestrel in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arlee319791968
Sugar Grove320191977
Clear Creek219951995
Pt Pleasant220231973
Sutton220241995
Cedarville220231983
Mo Of Seneca220012000
Slate220241982
Monongah220101977
Henderson220022002
Hix120241981
Smoot120131994
Pedro120191995
Stollings120062006
Bramwell119781978
Glade Run119921990
Bemis120212021
Hubbardstown120221982
Spencer120231990
Clendenin119791979
Nicut120131990
Meadland120152000
Paradise120111966
Bismark120172015
Olcott120051966

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.