BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Michigan is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Michigan is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.56
20260.220.000.55
20270.210.000.54
20280.200.000.53
20290.190.000.52

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording American Kestrel in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Allegan Wma520121994
Gilchrist320211974
St Charles319951967
Maple Rapids320211987
Adrian320071967
Cathro320161974
Belding 2320152015
Herron320162016
Ontonagon220171969
Ned Lake220191987
Herman219911991
Shingleton220241980
Bear Lake220231980
Lawrence220231976
Belding220001984
Galesburg220211969
Monterey219921985
Mottville220241971
Walloon Lake220041986
Skeels220111970
Bell Oak220071969
Holt220241969
Homer220121985
Sand Lake220211981
Hubbard Lake219931976

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.