BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Iowa

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Iowa has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+110%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Iowa: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Iowa is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.95 (95% range 0.25–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Iowa is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.95 (95% range 0.25–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.930.221.6
20260.930.231.6
20270.940.241.6
20280.940.241.6
20290.950.251.7

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording American Kestrel in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West Liberty520241982
Mt Hamill420241980
Red Rock320241972
Alice319991970
Pierson320131970
Garner319931971
College Spgs220041967
Bryant220221969
Desmoines219741970
Dinsdale220051983
Zearing219931967
Scranton220241968
Washta220141967
Davis Corner220241970
Lafayette220242012
Exline120221974
Melrose120211986
Bedford120151989
Cedar Valley119951967
Brooklyn120191967
Williamsburg120211985
Panther120241967
Washington120181967
Neola120091969
Wales120171989

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.