BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Arizona has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Arizona. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Arizona is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Arizona is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.001.4
20260.620.001.4
20270.610.001.4
20280.600.001.4
20290.580.001.3

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording American Kestrel in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope920091991
Greasewood720031993
Cactus Forest720241996
Castle Butte619941992
Skull Valley620241996
Alpine520231992
Mormon Lake419751968
Florence419761968
Aztec Peak419771975
Casa Grande420221992
Round Rock319761968
Squaw Peak319681968
Yampai319771969
New River320141974
Williams320182001
Forest Lakes320241992
Pisinimo319931993
Peach Spring320191992
Happy Jack320241977
Organ Pipe320211990
Red Rock 2320162015
Black Mesa219951989
Rose Wells219771968
Quartzsite220241974
Vicksburg219871969

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.