BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Ohio has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Ohio. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Ohio is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Ohio is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.001.6
20260.750.001.6
20270.740.001.6
20280.730.001.6
20290.730.001.5

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording American Kestrel in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kunkle920241992
Napoleon620241967
Maysville620051992
Darrtown620211966
Wilmington519951966
Bismark419951967
Botkins420191992
Harveysburg419961966
Cuba420241992
Greasy Ridge419911967
Lattasburg320221972
Westerville319831966
Meadowbrook320051971
Newport319941967
New Marshfld320171967
Coal Run319921966
N Baltimore220191968
Troy219961966
No Kenton220241974
Kenton220241973
Marion220211967
New Dover220221982
Winterset219831974
New Somerset219931972
Dunlap219881966

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.