BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Ohio

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Ohio has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has risen sharply in Ohio: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Ohio is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Ohio is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.770.001.6
20270.770.001.6
20280.760.001.6
20290.750.001.6
20300.740.001.6

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording American Kestrel in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maysville620051992
Darrtown620211966
Kunkle520251992
Wilmington519951966
Marion 2520252025
Bismark419951967
Botkins420191992
No Kenton420251974
Kenton420251973
Harveysburg419961966
Cuba420241992
Greasy Ridge419911967
Lattasburg320221972
Westerville319831966
Meadowbrook320051971
Newport319941967
New Marshfld320171967
Coal Run319921966
Bloomville220251992
N Baltimore220191968
Troy219961966
Marion220211967
New Dover220221982
Lucerne220251992
Baxter Ridge220251998

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.