BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Maryland has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Maryland. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Maryland is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Maryland is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.39
20260.130.000.38
20270.120.000.37
20280.120.000.36
20290.110.000.36

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording American Kestrel in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smithsburg320131966
Millington320241969
Mt Nebo219691969
Potomac Park220171973
Williamsport220231966
Largo219811975
La Plata220091971
Harmony220171967
Easton220181970
Jennings220181999
Accident 2220192019
Floyd120241979
Vindex120241991
Grove Neck119961993
Wolfsville120181972
Emmitsburg120241967
Silver Spg119891968
Olney119971968
Norwood120011966
Warfieldsbrg120061967
Pleasant Val120131967
Bachman Mill120031969
Fowblesburg120071966
Eklo120171976
Randallstown119901968

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.