BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Maryland has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968
63Routes In State
58Years

Notable American Kestrel Trends in Maryland

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Maryland. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Maryland is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029
0.11Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3695% range
±25.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.140.000.39
20260.130.000.38
20270.120.000.37
20280.120.000.36
20290.110.000.36

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording American Kestrel in Maryland.
Smithsburg320131966
Millington320241969
Mt Nebo219691969
Potomac Park220171973
Williamsport220231966
Largo219811975
La Plata220091971
Harmony220171967
Easton220181970
Jennings220181999
Accident 2220192019
Floyd120241979
Vindex120241991
Grove Neck119961993
Wolfsville120181972
Emmitsburg120241967
Silver Spg119891968
Olney119971968
Norwood120011966
Warfieldsbrg120061967
Pleasant Val120131967
Bachman Mill120031969
Fowblesburg120071966
Eklo120171976
Randallstown119901968

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.