BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Oregon

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Oregon has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Oregon. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oregon is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.43–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oregon is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.43–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.451.7
20271.10.451.7
20281.00.441.7
20291.00.431.7
20301.00.431.6

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording American Kestrel in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ordnance1319791971
Bridgeport1020181986
Catlow Rim1020251993
Deschutes820251968
Crane820051994
Harney Lake720061994
Joseph620251971
Adrian620251984
Twickenham620252011
Umatilla520251988
Madras520251997
Donnybrook519971997
Lone Rock420241968
Alvord Lake420251968
Sparta420251971
Fish Lake420251972
Canby420251994
Newbridge420251992
Salem420251994
Crooked Riv.420251994
Pendleton320251978
Princeton319841972
Wallowa320252025
Blitzen 2320251994
Malheur Nwr320221986

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.