BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Oregon has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Oregon. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oregon is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.41–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oregon is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.41–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.441.7
20261.00.431.7
20271.00.421.6
20281.00.421.6
20291.00.411.6

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording American Kestrel in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ordnance1319791971
Umatilla1220231988
Bridgeport1020181986
Buchanan820241971
Pendleton820241978
Crane820051994
Catlow Rim820241993
Deschutes720241968
Harney Lake720061994
Scio620241972
Canby520241994
Donnybrook519971997
Trout Creek520211996
Lone Rock420241968
Bly 2420242013
Madras420241997
Mcminnville420241995
Albee320241968
Imnaha320241968
Umpqua320241968
Fandango Can320241977
Adair320241971
Dayton320241973
Princeton319841972
Adrian320211984

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.