BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Tennessee has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Tennessee is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 18–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Tennessee is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 18–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261933
2026261833
2027261833
2028251833
2029251833

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawpaw11420121966
Tibbs9620241966
Mansfield8620241966
Peytonsville8320241966
Humboldt7620241966
Glen5620241966
Corryton Rd5520191966
Climer5420041967
Union Hill4620241967
Allens Brdge4420231966
Big Sandy4020241966
Belotes Bend4020181966
Oliver Spgs3920221966
Tullahoma3320151967
Indian Mound 23220232004
Collinwood3120241966
Brownsville2820241966
Soddy2819811967
Indian Mound2619981966
Petersburg2620191966
White House2420191966
Lovell2420191966
Pawpaw 22420232013
Tiptonville2220231966
Campbellsville2220191966

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.