BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Arkansas has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Arkansas is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 14–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Arkansas is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 14–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025231432
2026231432
2027231432
2028231432
2029231432

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kelso10120162010
Augusta 27820162002
Augusta7320011967
Maynard6220241967
Saffell4820191967
Farwell4520182010
Wilson4020241993
Whitton3619911967
Hickory Ridge3620222010
Dell3220242010
Lafe3020222017
Ravenden Springs2920152010
Hughes2620231967
Lockesburg2620192010
Russell2520212010
Nance2420241993
Ulm2320241986
South Bend2220231967
England2220242010
Blakely2119991968
Coal Hill2120231967
Zion2120241967
Marshall2020212011
Stephens2020242010
Stamps1920241967

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.