BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Arkansas has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Arkansas is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 13–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Arkansas is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 13–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221331
2027221331
2028221331
2029221331
2030221331

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kelso10120162010
Augusta 27820162002
Augusta7320011967
Saffell4820191967
Farwell4520182010
Whitton3619911967
Hickory Ridge3620222010
Maynard3520251967
Ulm3120251986
Lafe3020222017
Ravenden Springs2920152010
Wilson2820251993
Nance2720251993
Lockesburg2620192010
Russell2520212010
Hughes2420251967
England2420252010
Gillett2220252010
South Bend2120251967
Blakely2119991968
Coal Hill2120231967
Yellville2120252010
Marshall2020212011
Stamps1920241967
Centerton1820252010

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.