BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Florida has surged: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+221%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Florida: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Florida is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 46 (95% range 31–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Florida is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 46 (95% range 31–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026452960
2027453060
2028453061
2029463061
2030463161

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale13620111987
St Lucie13320251987
Kendall12119911987
Blountstown10520251966
Ridge Harbor10520251991
Sebastian9519921987
Broad Branch9220251967
Crewsville8120252000
Dowling Park7920251987
Ft Waltn Bch7620111966
Alturas7519861971
Gardner7519991987
Indiantown7420171966
Shawano 27420112004
Myakka Head7320111966
Pinetta7020251987
Miller Xrds6320191987
Santa Rosa6120031987
Lake Buffum5920241987
Broward5719731966
Aripeka5720251987
New Hope5420112009
Citrus5120252010
Dupuis W.E.A4920251994
Shawano4720021987

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.