BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Florida has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+219%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Florida: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Florida is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 31–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Florida is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 31–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025453060
2026453060
2027463161
2028463161
2029473162

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Lucie17720241987
Lovedale13620111987
Kendall12119911987
Betts11320241987
Sebastian9519921987
Ridge Harbor9120241991
Ft Waltn Bch7620111966
Alturas7519861971
Gardner7519991987
Indiantown7420171966
Shawano 27420112004
Myakka Head7320111966
Blountstown6920241966
Miller Xrds6320191987
Broad Branch6220241967
San Antonio6220241967
Santa Rosa6120031987
Pinetta6020241987
Lake Buffum5920241987
Broward5719731966
New Hope5420112009
Citrus5420242010
Laurel Hill5020242010
Scottsmoor4820241968
Shawano4720021987

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.