BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Pennsylvania has surged: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+108%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Pennsylvania: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 24–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 24–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025302337
2026302437
2027302437
2028312437
2029312438

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West Grove7219961966
Mount Joy7020241978
Drehersville6319991966
Drehersville 26320242000
Bendersville6120241990
Big Flat5819811966
Gatchelville5819901972
Scheafferstn5320011966
Mifflintown5220241966
Aspers5219891968
Brunnerville5120091969
Stoneybreak5120241992
Middletown4920241973
Waller4820241971
Brunnerville 24820242010
Mt Gretna 24720222001
Martinsburg4620241970
Waterstreet4620241968
Labott4619831966
Little Marsh4520241967
Schaefferstown 24220242002
Leola4220241998
Pine Gr Mill4120241967
Collegeville4120241971
Millville4020241969

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.