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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Pennsylvania has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+102%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Pennsylvania: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 24–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 24–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026302337
2027302337
2028302337
2029302337
2030302437

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stoneybreak7320251992
West Grove7219961966
Drehersville6319991966
Bendersville6120241990
Big Flat5819811966
Gatchelville5819901972
Middletown5320251973
Scheafferstn5320011966
Aspers5219891968
Brunnerville5120091969
Jacobus5120251986
Millville5020251969
Mount Joy5020251978
Leola4920251998
Mt Gretna 24720222001
Waterstreet4620241968
Labott4619831966
Little Marsh4520241967
Pine Gr Mill4420251967
Arnot4120251971
Collegeville4120241971
Doe Run4120251969
Drehersville 24120252000
Plesant Grov4020241966
Pottstown4019871966

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.