BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in South Dakota has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in South Dakota is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 12–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in South Dakota is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 12–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025351457
2026351357
2027351356
2028341256
2029341255

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Mourning Dove in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Conde18319841967
Cedar Pass18220231967
Lacreek16620231991
Eagle Butte13520151990
Isabel11520151990
Badlands11320231982
Geddes9620231967
Rosebud9120111967
Crow Creek8820231967
Lodgepole8220241990
Chamberlain8120111967
Forbes7820241967
Promise7820151971
Volunteer7820191967
Owanka7720221967
Indian7620241994
Maurine7520241968
Wilmot7120241967
Hayes6720241989
Howard6620241970
Roswell6520141967
Winner6320241968
Britton6320231967
Ottumwa6220221967
Laplant6120151971

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.