BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in South Dakota has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in South Dakota is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 13–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in South Dakota is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 13–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026371459
2027361459
2028361458
2029351358
2030351357

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Mourning Dove in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Conde18319841967
Cedar Pass14820251967
Geddes13620251967
Eagle Butte13520151990
Lacreek12920251991
Isabel11520151990
Badlands11420251982
Ottumwa9720251967
Maurine9720251968
Winner9620251968
Rosebud9120111967
Crow Creek8820231967
Howard8420251970
Rockyford8320251967
Chamberlain8120111967
Tripp8020251967
Lodgepole7920251990
Promise7820151971
Owanka7720221967
Forbes6820251967
Volunteer6820251967
Hayes6720241989
Roswell6520141967
Britton6320231967
Laplant6120151971

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.