BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Illinois has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Illinois. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Illinois is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 30–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Illinois is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 30–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026432957
2027432957
2028432957
2029432957
2030433057

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenview10620251993
Marshall7220252001
Milford7020251966
Kell6520252001
Duncan Mills6420251993
Bradbury6020251970
Grape Creek6020252001
Lake Galena5920212001
Chandlervill5820251971
Concord5820251967
York5720251993
Keithsburg5620252001
Stillwell5520251971
Newark5420221969
Rosamond5420251972
Cherry Val5320031972
Buda5320231977
Eldred5320251993
Belknap5120251970
Bluff Spgs5020251967
Sherrard5020251993
Alden5020252019
Royalton5020252001
Melrose4919991973
Belleview4920251966

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.