BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Illinois has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Illinois. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Illinois is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 44 (95% range 30–58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Illinois is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 44 (95% range 30–58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025432957
2026432957
2027432957
2028443058
2029443058

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
York8820241993
Royalton8720242001
Harristown8220242001
Karnak7820242001
Belleview7420241966
Bremen7120241969
Greenview7120241993
Keithsburg6920222001
Janesville6520241972
Terre Haute6220241966
Chandlervill5920241971
Dailey5920221967
Lake Galena5920212001
Rosamond5820241972
Bradbury5520241970
Darmstadt5520241993
Marshall5520242001
Newark5420221969
Yale5420241993
Cherry Val5320031972
Buda5320231977
Martinsville5320241970
Brownville5320241993
Jamestown5220241966
Grape Creek5220242001

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.