BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Arizona has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Arizona is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 0.00–56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Arizona is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 0.00–56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025290.0058
2026280.0058
2027270.0057
2028270.0057
2029260.0056

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cactus Forest16520241991
Palo Verde15420131992
Coolidge15119851974
Hope10520091990
Red Rock 29220242015
Bartlett Res7520241992
Happy Jack6320241977
Wickenburg6120232017
New River5320161974
Ajo 25220222009
Cabeza Priet4920241993
Forest Lakes4820241992
Mcneal4820241992
House Rock4720221968
Ajo4620081968
Pomerene4520241968
Amado4520231993
Antares4320241994
Florence4219881968
Skull Valley4220241996
Pisinimo4119931992
Palo Verde 23920242014
Quartzsite3820241974
Mormon Lake3619751968
Araby3620231992

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.