BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Arizona has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 25 (95% range 0.00–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 25 (95% range 0.00–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026280.0057
2027270.0057
2028270.0056
2029260.0056
2030250.0055

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Palo Verde15420131992
Cactus Forest15320251991
Coolidge15119851974
Hope10520091990
Red Rock 29220242015
Palo Verde 28120252014
Skull Valley 27520252025
Bartlett Res6320251992
Wickenburg6120232017
Redington5420251993
New River5320161974
Ajo 25220222009
Mcneal4820251992
House Rock4720221968
Ajo4620081968
Williams4620251993
Alpine4520251993
Florence4219881968
Skull Valley4220241996
Tonto Vill.4220251992
Sprucedale4220251992
Pisinimo4119931992
Toroweap3920251994
Mormon Lake3619751968
Patagonia3620251968

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.