BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Utah has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Utah. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Utah is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Utah is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.10.0021
20276.70.0021
20286.30.0021
20296.00.0020
20305.60.0020

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blanding7320251987
Timpie Spg4820031978
Hatch4220251994
Fayette4020251992
Monticello3920251998
Promontory3120251969
Newcastle2820251997
Jensen2720251992
Delta2720251987
Goshen2620251968
Altonah2420251969
Hill Creek2419951993
Wendover2320111969
Ferron2120252000
Wellington 32020252012
Uintah Nf2019941987
Beck 22020251991
Johnson Can1820241987
Wellington 21820112003
Vernon1720251992
Escalante1720251998
Boulder1620251968
Randolph1620251992
Leamington1620171992
Wellington1620021997

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.