BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Utah has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Utah. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Utah is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Utah is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.20.0022
20266.80.0021
20276.40.0021
20286.10.0021
20295.70.0020

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jensen8620241992
Promontory7220241969
Blanding7220241987
Timpie Spg4820031978
Hatch4320241994
Westwater4120241997
Escalante3320241998
E. Bear Lake3320221995
Goose Creek Mtn.2720231997
Newcastle2720221997
Canyon Rims2520241998
Hill Creek2419951993
Wendover2320111969
Delta2320241987
Grantsville2320242001
Aneth2220241986
Dixie Nf2120241993
Uintah Nf2019941987
Fayette2020211992
Kamas2020241997
Lynn1920231982
Johnson Can1820241987
Randolph1820241992
Wellington 21820112003
Hite1620231987

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.