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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Massachusetts has surged: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+203%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Massachusetts: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 16–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 16–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251535
2027251535
2028251535
2029251635
2030251635

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Pepperell5119941966
Cheshire4119941969
Warren3520091968
Belchertown3220251967
Mansfield2820251968
N Orange2720251968
Chesterfield2720251967
Marion2520251966
Littleton2420251967
S Barre2120251968
Holden2120251977
Maynard2020251967
Newburyport1820221967
E Dennis1720211967
Princeton1719761969
Wellfleet 21620252016
Warren 21620252010
Chilmark1519831969
Wellfleet1520071966
N Oxford1520251968
Gay Head1520251996
Prattville1420191966
Pittsfield1420161967
Brockton1320191967
Monterey1220252019

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.