BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Massachusetts has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+202%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Massachusetts: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 16–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 16–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251535
2026251635
2027251635
2028261635
2029261635

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Pepperell5119941966
Belchertown4720241967
Cheshire4119941969
Warren3520091968
N Oxford3320241968
Marion2820241966
S Barre2620241968
Gay Head2620241996
Wellfleet 22520242016
Littleton2420241967
Maynard1920221967
Newburyport1820221967
N Orange1820241968
Chesterfield1820241967
E Dennis1720211967
Mansfield1720241968
Princeton1719761969
Holden1620241977
Chilmark1519831969
Wellfleet1520071966
Prattville1420191966
Pittsfield1420161967
Brockton1320191967
Warren 21320242010
Cummington 21320242015

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.