BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Virginia has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Virginia is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 12–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Virginia is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 12–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201326
2026191326
2027191326
2028191226
2029191225

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville8820241966
Brodnax7320241973
Gladys6520241994
Ringgold6020241976
Cornland4820141975
Irisburg4520241976
Newsoms4420241967
Branchville4420241966
Rural Retrt4420241982
Jerome4220231971
Stanley4020241966
Great Falls3819781966
Waverly3819871967
Moran3820241996
Brandy Station3620242017
Brandon3520241992
Taylorstown3320101967
Taylorstown 23320242012
David3220131968
Natural Brid3220241974
Fincastle3120241966
Newville2820241988
Backbay2719741966
Concord2620241967
White Stone2620241966

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.