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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Virginia has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Virginia is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 12–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Virginia is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 12–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201327
2027201326
2028191326
2029191326
2030191226

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gladys8220251994
Churchville7720251966
Brodnax7420251973
Ringgold6220251976
Surry5020251977
Cornland4820141975
Newsoms4420241967
Branchville4420241966
Star Tannery4320251977
Brandon4220251992
Mannboro4020251967
Great Falls3819781966
Waverly3819871967
White Stone3820251966
Brandy Station3620252017
Stanley3520251966
Rural Retrt3520251982
Carters Brdg 23420252015
Taylorstown3320101967
David3220131968
Quinby2920251966
Moran2920251996
Jerome2820251971
Newville2820241988
Hall2720251967

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.