BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Idaho is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Idaho is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.20.0017
20267.90.0017
20277.60.0017
20287.30.0016
20297.00.0016

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dubois6120241968
Glenns Ferry4119861968
Cedar Hill4020241989
Pocatello3720191979
Joel3520241989
Squirrel3020241971
Springfield3020181969
Preston3020231988
Pasadena Val2520161987
Mud Lake2420231988
Magic Mtn2120241987
Blackft Res1920181984
Daniels Res1720191988
Gifford1620171971
Crane Creek1620191988
Picabo1420211988
Ririe1320231971
Mora1320242018
Blacks Creek1120171968
Acequia1120121979
Henry1119831973
Triangle1020241985
Iron Springs1020241988
Baker920241974
Centerville920191972

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.