BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Iowa

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Iowa has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Iowa is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 28–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
28–5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Iowa is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 28–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026402752
2027402752
2028402852
2029402852
2030402853

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
College Spgs13820041967
Mt Hamill7120251967
Panther4720251967
Scranton4720251967
Festina4720251968
Bryant4520251967
Zearing4519951967
Rock Valley4420251968
Mccallsburg4220251996
Red Rock4120251968
Washta3920251967
Hudson3720251967
Wales3620251967
Bedford3320251968
Melrose3220251974
Williamsburg3220231967
Davis Corner3220251968
Cedar Valley3019971967
Exline2920251974
Titonka2720251968
Sioux City2620251968
Gaza2520251969
Tipton2520251993
Washington2320251967
Alice2319991967

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.